27. Russia uses a broad range of hybrid operations targeting Czechia’s interests and security. Its non-military activities attempt to undermine confidence in democratic institutions and destabilize our society and economy. Unless Russia goes through a fundamental and deep transformation, political as well as social, it will remain a threat to European space no matter what outcome the war in Ukraine may have. Exhausted by the conventional conflict, Russia will become increasingly reliant on nuclear capabilities to defend its position as a great power. This is also why it continues with the modernization of its nuclear weapons and their carriers. 28. China poses a fundamental systemic challenge globally and also in terms of direct influence operations in democratic countries, including the Czech Republic. It makes increasingly vigorous efforts to push through its interests by attempting to change the existing international order. It continues with massive arming and building of military capabilities, including nuclear forces. It engages in cyber espionage, seeks to control global data flows, and uses diverse forms of socio-economic coercion and other hybrid interference tools. Chinese companies are, in effect, tied to the State and ready to serve its aims. 29. There is a mounting tension between China and some other countries in the region. A potential regional conflict would affect the security situation in Europe and threaten to set off global military escalation. It would also have implications for Czechia’s economic and technological security. The risk factors include Chinese investment in Czech and European critical infrastructure, China’s domination of strategic supply chains, its control of the key commodities, and the way it develops emerging and disruptive technologies, especially AI, with no regard for ethical rules and international standards. China sets out to rewrite the standards. It engages in disinformation activities and challenges the narrative accepted in the international community as a consensual or at least prevailing view. China fails to adequately protect intellectual property, and it misuses the instruments of scientific and academic cooperation. 30. Yet another long-term threat comes from the other countries that similarly stand in opposition to the international rules-based order. Some of them have (or seek to acquire) nuclear weapons. The Democratic People’s Republic of Korea has stepped up its ballistic missile testing, declared itself a nuclear weapons State, and reserved the right to launch a preventive strike. The Islamic Republic of Iran has long been undermining regional stability by its aggressive campaign to expand its sphere of influence by military means. It systematically develops strategic offensive military technologies and nuclear research activities with the apparent aim to build nuclear weapons. Iran is an active supporter of Russia’s aggression against Ukraine. 14 31. The Western Balkans remains a source of instability despite the progress made by its countries on the path to NATO and the EU. Western Balkan countries are important partners to the Czech Republic and the EU as a whole. However, the internal situation in some of them is fragile and the countries, just like their ethnic groups, have too many outstanding issues in their mutual relationships. The Western Balkans is a region where Euro-Atlantic values and orientation come under the adverse influence of Russia, China, and the Gulf countries. 32. Czechia’s security is endangered by active conflicts and lasting instability in the Middle East, Northern Africa, and Sub-Saharan Africa; the source of threats are terrorism, violent radicalism, forced displacement, and illegal EU-bound migration. Russia has long been destabilizing the two regions—deploying private paramilitary companies, conducting manipulative information campaigns, and fomenting of anti-Western sentiment. Russia intends to promote non-liberal governance, undermine stabilization efforts, and weaken the EU’s position. The countries are becoming dependent on Chinese investment, which is an additional threat. Climate change also has severe impacts on security and stability in the regions. 33. Decline of democracy and the rule of law in any EU Member State would cause internal instability within the EU. The unity, cohesion, and respect for fundamental principles would falter. This would have a damaging effect on the security of Czechia. 34. Non-State actors are another source of direct threats to Czechia’s security, ranging from acts of terrorism and violent extremism to activities eroding and dismantling the rule of law from the inside. Non-State actors exploit the opportunities and freedoms offered by the democratic rule of law, using them to engage in crime, disrupt public order, and commit acts of violence. Organized crime is an important security threat; in combination with corrupt practices, it may undermine the foundations of our society and destabilize our State. Another threat is the development and spread of dual-use technologies enabling non-State actors to operate in domains where they formerly had little or no access, such as in the air, at sea, and in the cyber space. 35. An additional security threat is unmanaged and uncontrolled migration, both legal and illegal. This is a situation where the State cannot efficiently control the migration flow and screen the people entering its territory. A third country may deliberately increase an illegal migration flow to serve its hostile purposes. Failed or deficient integration of immigrants is also a threat as it promotes the rise of self-segregated immigrant communities with parallel power structures, and the attendant risks of societal fragmentation and the rise of xenophobia, intolerance, and extremism. 15