● SAFER CYBERSPACE What to expect in cyberspace IN 2025 An increased likelihood of a major incident Another record year for cyber incidents As discussed in this yearbook, Estonia experienced a record number of reported cyber incidents with an impact in 2024. Looking at the latter half of the year, especially the final months and weeks, we anticipate this upward trend will continue into 2025. While the rate of increase may not be as steep, it would be naïve to expect a decline. This continued rise is driven by both the growing capabilities of cybercriminals and increasing public awareness that incidents should be reported to RIA’s Incident Response Department at cert@cert.ee or via raport.cert.ee. 56 Cybersecurity is never a finished task. As technology evolves, so do the opportunities for criminals and state-backed groups to cause harm – whether for financial gain, espionage or disruption of critical services. In reality, as demonstrated by the destruction of several underwater cables in the Baltic Sea since October 2023, taking down critical infrastructure does not always require sophisticated cyberattack capabilities. Sometimes, all it takes is an ageing vessel with an anchor that fails to stay aboard. No matter how well RIA prepares to prevent and counter cyber incidents, or how seriously Estonian institutions, businesses and individuals strive to protect themselves, the attacker always holds the advantage. Suppose we imagine Estonia’s cyberspace as a sprawling summer meadow, alive with blooming flowers, birdsong and children at play. In that case, we must also picture a high fence meant to shield it from malicious intruders. This fence must be impenetrable at every point, requiring constant vigilance from defenders across the entire perimeter. Meanwhile, the attackers need only a single ladder to climb over or one tool to break through. Under these conditions, the question is not if a serious incident will occur, but when. CYBER SECURITY IN ESTONIA 2025