Working Worldwide for the Security of the Netherlands Working Worldwide for the Security of the Netherlands Geopolitically, the international balance of power is shifting towards a more multipolar order, making multilateral action more difficult. Rather than seeking win-win situations, states increasingly focus more often and more explicitly on achieving relative advantages, on the basis of a zero-sum understanding of international relations. That has consequences for the international legal order, basic democratic principles and the universality of human rights. It produces new forms of global tension and causes polarisation between East and West. It also leads to shifting international coalitions on different policy issues and more pronounced conflicts of interest, for example between the EU and other regional forces. subversive networks. In addition, this crisis is a threat to regional stability and to relations with neighbouring countries like Colombia. The Kingdom benefits from stability in the region, especially in Colombia. The Netherlands therefore actively supports the peace process in that country. Economically, countries like China and India have grown much stronger. That has been matched by a relative decline in the position of the EU and the US as dominant global economic actors. China’s Belt and Road Initiative is a good example of its economic expansion. The initiative aims to promote China’s economic and political ambitions in the international arena by expanding the country’s land and maritime transport routes. | 14 | This multi-order world is fundamentally changing the nature of international cooperation. Ad hoc coalitions are increasingly taking the place of traditional forms of cooperation. Deteriorating relations are eroding the effectiveness of large multilateral forums. Multi-stakeholder cooperation is on the rise, in which a mix of state and nonstate actors play an increasingly important part for better or worse. The prominent influence of multinational companies stands out, as do NGOs, influential individuals and criminal and terrorist organisations. 2.2 Instability and threats around Europe and the Caribbean parts of the Kingdom Many studies point out the growing interconnection between external and internal security, and this is expected to become even closer in the coming period. Growing instability in countries and regions around and on the edges of Europe is creating serious risks, both for sustainable development in the regions and for the security of the Kingdom. Wars and other armed conflicts have made countries like Mali, Afghanistan, Ukraine, Libya, Syria, Iraq and Yemen less secure in recent years, and their governance less stable. Stability is also in jeopardy closer to home, in the Western Balkans. Some of these places have become a refuge for criminal, extremist and terrorist groups. There is a risk of the surrounding countries being drawn into a downward spiral of violence and failing governance. The uncertain political and economic situation in Venezuela is a particular concern. The worsened humanitarian and economic situation – and the potential risk of significant migration flows – have direct consequences for the Caribbean parts of the Kingdom. The crisis in Venezuela can make the country even more attractive to criminal and other A number of trends have a negative impact on stability and security around Europe in the long term. Although, in some cases, action is required to address the symptoms in the short term, preventive measures can mitigate the security risks for the Netherlands, Europe and the Kingdom in the long term. The following developments in particular can lead to insecurity: • The concentration of poverty in fragile states, a widening gap between rich and poor, and increasing inequality within states, societies and households. • Illegitimate forms of government, for example in a tribal environment, where the state order is in any event seen as illegitimate. This leads to repression and violations of human rights (including the right to religious freedom), inadequate observance of the rule of law and lack of civic space, including limited freedom of action for civil society. • Polarisation and sharper conflicts as a result of clashing ideologies, spurred on by new technologies and social media. • The political and social exclusion of minorities. • The effects of climate change, including the associated energy transition required to tackle them. • Substantial population growth and urbanisation, in Africa and the Middle East especially as well as in Central Asia. • Raw materials and water scarcity, driven by growth of population and consumption. One consequence of these developments is the growing strain that irregular migration places on Europe. Its impact on our security is not unequivocally clear. Regular migration can contribute to our economy and society, particularly the knowledge economy, for example by helping address the problems caused by an ageing population. However, large-scale refugee flows and irregular migration can have a destabilising effect on European cooperation, solidarity and tolerance. They can also fuel polarisation in our society and reduce support for regular migration and our asylum system. In addition, irregular migration often goes together with cross-border crime, including people smuggling and human trafficking, whose proceeds can be used to finance terrorist activities. There are also examples of terrorists ‘hitching a ride’ along with bona fide refugees and migrants coming to Europe. The often chaotic nature of irregular migration can also seriously jeopardise the safety of individual migrants and create emergencies, so that they cannot meet their basic needs during their journey and their human rights are at risk. Irregular migration, especially from the Sahel, Sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East and the Horn of Africa, is expected to remain substantial in the coming period. | 15 |