9 WHITE Close Russian military cooperation with Belarus, also strengthens Russia’s power in the region. Belarus’ defence and security policy is closely coordinated with Russia, and military integration of both states is practically completed – their armed forces are fully interoperable, the command and control of the Russia-Belarus Regional Group of Forces is synchronised, their joint air defence system continues to be further developed, and joint military exercises are frequently organised and conducted. As a result of all these factors, Lithuania’s security environment has worsened and this threat to the country’s security will remain a longstanding issue. The likelihood of military aggression is no longer a theoretical possibility but one where military and non-military measures could be used in combination, in order to exploit the vulnerabilities of the state. The second long-term challenge to Lithuania’s security is information and cyber-attacks. As Lithuania is increasingly dependent on modern communication and information technologies, cyber-attacks against the networks of state institutions, state defence system, business entities or media, constitute a growing threat to national security. Cyberattacks are organised by certain states or state supported entities, and with the potential to further grow on a larger scale – by nonstate actors or even by individuals. It is highly likely that cyber capabilities would be extensively used during any type of conventional or unconventional conflict in the region so as to impede the response of Lithuania and Allies. In this light, security of critical infrastructure, necessary for the functioning of vital sectors of the nation, become especially relevant. Propaganda, disinformation and other deliberate information attacks is a growing threat to modern societies, as certain states and non-state actors increasingly use the information space domain in order to disrupt the democratic process in other countries, escalate tensions among their citizens or encourage distrust in state institutions and states themselves. In Lithuania and other states in the region, Russia aggressively spreads unfounded and misleading information with the aim of shaping public opinion on the questions of national security. In the future, the number of information attacks, particularly those directed towards specific target groups, is likely to grow as a result of the increase use of information and communications technologies. The third important challenge is religious extremism and the protracted conflicts in the Southern neighbourhood of Europe. Failed political and social reforms in some Middle East and North African countries has led to conflicts, which not only caused the spread of terrorism, large scale illegal migration, organised crime and humanitarian crises, but also has raised a serious challenge to the solidarity and integration of the EU as a whole. Militant Islamist groups intensively use various propaganda tools to radicalise Muslims in Europe, who later travel to fight in their ranks in the Middle East and North Africa or organise terrorist attacks in Europe. The instability in this region has spurred massive migration to Europe, which, in addition to economic and social challenges to European countries, has created more opportunities for terrorist organisations to send terrorists to Europe. Although the possibility of a terrorist attack in Lithuania remains low, the growing threat of terrorism in Europe, the spread of radical Islamic ideology, the return of EU states’ radicalised citizens from conflict regions, and the creation of independent local terrorists cells in European countries, have an indirect and negative influence to the security of Lithuania. PA P E R