National Cyberstrategy (NCS) therefore include cyberdefence and cyberdiplomacy in its preparations for potential conflict. Human error and technical failures In addition to targeted and intentional cyberattacks, unintentional actions or natural and technological events may also lead to cyberincidents. These are triggered by human error in the provision and use of ICT (e.g. improper or careless use of ICT systems, faulty administration or configuration, loss of data carriers) or by technical failures, which in turn can have various causes (e.g. ageing infrastructure or natural events, overuse, faulty design, inadequate maintenance, insufficient energy supply). Events of this kind occur frequently with varying degrees of magnitude and are part of the everyday life of ICT departments in businesses and public authorities. Accordingly, the effects of these errors and failures can generally be controlled relatively well. However, it is important to note that many major cyberincidents are not the result of targeted attacks, but rather of a chain of different circumstances such as human error or technical failure combined with inadequate preparation. Preventive measures against such events must therefore not be neglected in the planning and implementation of protective measures. Cyberincidents due to human error or technical failures will remain common. Moreover, the increasing complexity resulting from the interconnectedness of a wide range of areas makes it difficult to estimate and limit the impact of these unintended events. Staff training and good overall preparation and precautionary planning for such incidents therefore remain key elements in protecting against cyberthreats. Factors influencing the threat situation Technological, political and social developments have a major influence on the threat situation. In general, the situation can change very quickly at any time. Nevertheless, it is possible to identify influencing factors that are highly likely to affect the future development of cyberthreats. It is important to consider these influencing factors in the strategic context. At the same time, it must always be borne in mind that the list of possible influencing factors should by no means be understood as exhaustive and that continuous assessment of the situation includes identifying other potential influences at an early stage and constantly reassessing factors that have already been identified. The development of the cyberthreat situation is largely shaped by geopolitical and technological innovations. With regard to geopolitics, it can be said, in simplified terms, that an increase in geopolitical tensions results in a deterioration of the cyberthreat situation. With the internet now connecting countries, companies and individuals worldwide, international tensions have a direct impact on these interactions. It is therefore to be expected that there will be a rise in reciprocal cyberattacks in all of the forms described above. At the same time, amid growing tensions between countries that are among the leading manufacturers of hardware and software products, mutual embargoes are also to be expected. This makes procuring such equipment more difficult, meaning that it is all the more important for supply recipients to weigh up the risks very carefully when making procurements. With regard to technological developments, it should be noted that technological innovations can make the situation better or worse, and sometimes both at once. While new technologies often help to improve security, at the same time they create new dependencies, increase complexity, and may even lead directly to new threats if used by attackers for their own purposes. It is therefore crucial for protection against cyberthreats to address new technological developments and anticipate possible threats at an early stage. In the coming years, particular attention will have to be paid to developments in the following three core digitalisation technologies: - Cloud computing: Cloud computing enables new applications and technological innovations and can enhance cybersecurity, for example by ensuring a high level of information availability. At the same time, it creates risks. Information that is of great 6