TIER 4 RISKS 3.43 Tier 4 Risks consists of Future Risks. These risks are transnational in scope and include: • • • Climate change; Pandemics; and Migratory Pressures. 3.44 Tier 4 Risks have probabilities and consequences that are still not well known. However, they could have major implications for the Region, due to the inherent vulnerabilities of small states; and capacity and capability constraints. Climate Change Pandemics Migratory Pressure Climate Change 3.45 The World Bank ‘Turn Down the Heat’ report (November 2012) concluded that the world’s average surface temperature is now 0.8° higher than the pre-industrial levels, primarily as a result of the emission of greenhouse gases, and that it could be 4°C higher by 2060, even if current United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change emission pledges and commitments are met in full. Without a major change in policy, the temperature will continue to rise; it could be 6°C higher by 2100. This level is likely to trigger ecological catastrophe, as many parts of the world will become effectively uninhabitable. Southern Europe, for example, would then have a similar climate to the Libyan Desert. 3.46 Climate change will have a massive impact on the Region, adding further stress and exacerbating existing trends, tensions and instability in already fragile states. The possible risks include food shortages due to decreases in global agricultural production, decreased availability and quality of fresh water due to changed precipitation patterns and more frequent floods and droughts, declining fisheries, increasingly costly energy and increased storm damage, while rising sea levels in the coastal areas of the Caribbean islands, where sixty per cent (60%) of the Caribbean population live, will result in forced migration and competition over increasingly scarce resources. Pandemics 3.47 The Influenza A (H1N1) demonstrated the risks of pandemics to the security of the Region and to the social and economic well-being of the people of this Community. Highly contagious diseases, such as SARS and Avian Influenza, can cross borders easily and have grave implications for health and security. Migratory Pressure • Illegal immigrants from third states and other regions 3.48 Poverty, conflict, volatile political situations and natural disasters in other countries result in increased flows of illegal migrants. At present, most of the world’s illegal migrants try to reach the USA or Europe, but CARICOM must remain vigilant in this regard, especially if climate change starts to compound existing social problems in poor countries. 31