CHAPTER 2: DEFINING OUR RISKS AND THREATS 2.1 In order to protect CARICOM’s vital interests and values as efficiently and effectively as possible, it is essential to compare, assess and prioritise all potential risks and threats to the Region’s prosperity and the safety and security of citizens and visitors. The identification and assessment of risks and threats allows attention and resources to be focused on the priority areas. RISK AND THREAT METHODOLOGY One of the first steps towards securing CARIOM is to understand the various risks involved and to present a clear picture of the risks and threats (actual and potential) to regional security. Risk and Threat Assessment Methodology 2.2 The CCSS is based on an all hazards approach that takes into account all plausible threats to CARICOM security. The methodology involved a ‘CARICOM-Specific Risk and Threat Assessment’ by risk and threat assessment specialists and other relevant experts within the Community. 2.3 The risk and threat assessment specialists identified a wide range of existing and potential risks to regional security. The methodology identified plausible worst-case scenarios for each risk and threat and considered the impact of an event and the likelihood of this event occurring over a five (5) and fifteen (15) year time frame. The impact was assessed based on fatalities, human and health injuries, social disruptions, economic damage, psychological impact, structural, infrastructure damage and environmental impact. The methodology also took into consideration the Region’s current level of preparation for each risk or threat. The ‘CARICOMSpecific Risk and Threat Assessment’ also built on existing national and regional risk and threat assessments (both classified and de-classified). 2.4 Risks and threat scenarios were analysed, giving greatest weight to those which were more likely to occur and which would have the greatest impact. A Risk and Threat Assessment Matrix (See Figure 2.1) was used as a framework through which: • Possible risks and threats were compared; • The probability of each risk or threat was evaluated; and • The impact of each risk or threat was assessed. Figure 2.1: CARICOM Risk And Threat Assessment Matrix 2.5 The risks and threats were prioritised and categorised into Four Tiers which represent the Community’s priorities. All the risks and threats presented in this Strategy require specific actions to prevent or mitigate the risks or threat. 21