dialogue, carrying out rhetorical threats on the decision by the ROK government to deploy
the THAAD system on one hand and showing off its missile strike capabilities on the other.
Starting in late October, North Korea engaged in a war of public opinion and cyber-psychological warfare as part of its scheme to instigate social unrest in the South.
Moving forward, North Korea is likely to continue with its rhetorical threats and escalation
of military tensions while shifting the blame for the worsening of inter-Korean relations to the
South. At the same time, North Korea will attempt to resume civilian exchanges and cooperation with ROK, strengthening its unified front tactics.
| foreign Policy | Despite criticism and sanctions from the international community, Kim
Jong-un is intent on ensuring the survival of his regime by further developing North Korea’s
nuclear capabilities and gaining recognition as a nuclear state.
The UN Security Council adopted Resolutions 208732) and 209433) against North Korea
following its long-range missile launch in December 2012 and the third nuclear test in February
2013, respectively. After the fourth nuclear test conducted in January 2016, the UN Security
Council unanimously adopted Resolution 2270 which contains significantly “‘tougher and
more effective’” measures against North Korea. Following the fifth nuclear test in September
2016, the UN Security Council further strengthened the sanctions against the North Korean
regime through Resolution 2321, which, among others, placed a cap on coal exports and added
new items to the list of banned export items.
After the U.S.-North Korea “Lead Day Deal”34) of 2012 was breached, all official channels
of dialogue were cut off between the two countries.
Without responding to the U.S.’ call for dialogue on denuclearization and an improvement
of its human rights situation, North Korea carried out nuclear tests and missile test launches in
2013 and 2016. In 2016, while issuing threats of preemptive attack and churning out diatribes
against the U.S., the Kim Jong-un regime demanded that Washington end the hostile policy
against North Korea. Since July 2016, North Korea has been pushing for a structure where
ROK, U.S., and Japan on one side are in conflict with North Korea, China, and Russia on the
other side by bandwagoning on the opposition by China and Russia to the USFK decision to
32) the resolution condemns the launch of a long-range missile by North Korea, strengthens the North Korean sanctions and warns
of further significant measures (per the trigger clause) in the event of a future provocation, while also expanding the scope of the
existing sanctions.
33) the resolution, expressing grave concerns on North Korea’s nuclear tests, bans the import and export of materials deemed for use
in the development of nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles and places restrictions on the movement of financial assets.
34) During the third high-level talks held in Beijing between February 23 and 24, 2010, North Korea agreed to a series of
denuclearization measures, including a moratorium on nuclear and missile tests, suspension of its Yongbyon Nuclear Complex and
the return of iaea (international atomic energy agency) inspectors, in exchange for 240,000 tons of “nutritional assistance” from
the U.S.
Section 3 North Korean Situation and Military threats
25
Chapter 1
attempted to divide the ROK public opinion using its dual-track tactics of provocation and